The West is playing geopolitical poker with the lives of millions of Ukrainians

                                           The West is playing geopolitical poker with the lives of millions of Ukrainians 

 Luis Gonzalo Segura: The West is playing geopolitical poker with the lives of millions of Ukrainians. A perverse game in which the more Ukrainians die, the greater the geopolitical successes of the West. Moreover, at this time, the only card for the West in this geopolitical game, barring an unexpected twist, is the death of the Ukrainians. And the more they perish, the better. It is enough to briefly analyze the possibilities for the end of the confrontation to corroborate it and what will happen as time progresses. 

 The dead benefit the West 

 Before beginning the analysis, two issues must be noted. First of all, Russia has behaved extremely carefully towards the people of Ukraine, even when mistakes may have occurred. Suffice it to say that she even gives advance notice of her targets to avoid civilian casualties, which is obviously unusual to say the least. 

This is because, unlike the West, a country for which the greater the number of Ukrainian deaths, the greater its geopolitical returns, in the case of Russia the opposite happens: each deceased Ukrainian represents a considerable decrease, not only to geopolitical level, but also at the political level. Even sentimental. And it is that every deceased Ukrainian, especially civilian, not only means media ammunition for the West, but also causes an internal loss for Russia, because let's not forget that many Russians feel that the Ukrainians as a whole, not just the eight million Ukrainians of Russian origin, they are part of their own people. Or, at least, they have sentimental ties woven by centuries of historical coexistence. 

 The West has militarily abandoned Ukraine 

Secondly, barring a very unlikely turn, the West is not going to participate directly in the confrontation with Ukraine and the only thing they are doing on a military level is arming them to the teeth, including civilians and people with no prior experience. An option that, given the Russian superiority, only leads to an increase in the number of dead Ukrainians. However, armed civilians not only do not change the current scenario by themselves in the medium or long term.

 However, this is not a problem for the West, since the more dead, the more Western loot. Is there any serious analyst who expects the Ukrainians to resist in the face of such superiority? And if so, what will be the price in human lives? 

 Luis Gonzalo Segura, former lieutenant of the Spanish Army. 

 Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the more deaths, the greater the Western benefit. For this, the West jelly. It does so, not so much with the belief that the Ukrainians will be able to resist or win, which, at the moment, seems like a chimera, but so that every day there are more deaths. 

 Because, let's be honest, without a direct military intervention from the West – and you can already sense how it could end for everyone – the real possibilities for Ukraine are, except for a historical miracle, almost non-existent. So unlikely that they can only hope to delay the inevitable. 

 Therefore, if there is no Western military intervention at the risk of nuclear apocalypse, there are: 

Three possible endings: total victory for Russia, end of the confrontation in a negotiation or temporary stagnation of the conflict.

 An unlikely ending: abandonment of Russia. 

An absurd ending: total victory for Ukraine. 

 But, as I have already mentioned, unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the more deaths, the greater the Western benefit. For this, the West jelly. It does so, not so much with the belief that the Ukrainians will be able to resist or win, which, at the moment, seems like a chimera, but so that every day there are more deaths. However, the more deaths, the more time and, if the trend is not reversed, the more space Russia has gained. And the more space Russia gains, the fewer options for Ukraine in a negotiation. 

 Scenario 1: Total Russian victory 

 Total Russian victory is not as far away as many might think, as the Russian advance is slow but steady. Greater in the south than in the rest of Ukraine, but as fronts fall and Russian troops join, the siege will increase and military pressure will grow exponentially. In a few days there may be a Ukrainian collapse, maybe even sooner. Therefore, the Ukrainians are probably wasting valuable time. Perhaps, they only have a few days left to negotiate.

 Let's not forget that, in the event of total Russian victory, Ukraine will have no cards to negotiate with and will only be able to accept what Russia decides.

 Scenario 2: Negotiation

 This is the second possible way out of the confrontation in Ukraine, an agreement. An exit for which, once again, time is running against Ukraine and in favor of the West. The more time passes, at least if there is no Western military intervention, the more ground Ukraine will lose and therefore the worse its negotiating options will be. However, as in the previous scenario, the longer the confrontation lasts, the greater the casualties, both military and civilian, and therefore the greater the Western possibilities of using them against Russia.

 Scenario 3: temporary stagnation of the conflict 

Russia is now close to controlling all of southern and eastern Ukraine, its main objective before the confrontation begins. Therefore, another scenario that could occur would be the lengthening of the conflict, either this stagnation in the current situation or in scenarios in which Russia controls even more territory –since proposing in the current situation that Ukraine can recover ground, it does not seem very reasonable-. In this context, military movements of both advances and retreats could take place, if an unlikely situation of military balance were produced; or, simply, there would be a stalemate with Russian dominance – which could happen due to multiple factors.

 Luis Gonzalo Segura, former lieutenant of the Spanish Army. 

 Worst of all is the oblivion into which, sooner rather than later, the Ukrainians will fall. Well, although now the media attention on them is enormous, experience reminds us that, little by little, the conflict will generate less interest until, one day, closer than many think, what happens in Ukraine will become a insignificant report.

 Without a doubt, this situation would be the most beneficial for the West: Russia would experience an 'Afghanistan' on its border, almost in the heart of its country. A conflict with no near end that would cause years and years of military, economic, political and geopolitical attrition and cost the lives of thousands and thousands of Ukrainians and Russians, perhaps hundreds of thousands.

 Scenario 4: Ukraine's total victory 

 Considering the current circumstances, and barring Western intervention, Ukraine's total victory is a pipe dream. But, if it happens, that is, if Ukraine manages to reverse the situation, how many lives will it take? And, again: the more dead, the greater the Western benefit. 

Scenario 5: abandonment of Russia 

That Russia left Ukraine without negotiation, without more, is another scenario that could occur, although it is, in light of current information, very unlikely. In principle, it would only be possible in the case of a combination of factors that do not seem feasible for them to converge, although it is not completely ruled out. It could be a sudden abandonment, due to some kind of internal collapse, or an abandonment after weeks, months or years of confrontation, be it due to a collapse, a change of government or a geopolitical decision after a stalemate in the conflict. In the short term, it could be due to international pressure, economic measures or internal bankruptcy. Or perhaps a combination of all these factors and even some more. 

 Sooner than later, the Ukrainians will stop importing 

Whatever happens, the perverse geopolitical game of the West is far from the worst of the dramatic situation. Worst of all is the oblivion into which, sooner rather than later, the Ukrainians will fall. Well, although now the media attention on them is enormous, experience reminds us that, little by little, the conflict will generate less interest until, one day, closer than many think, what happens in Ukraine will become a insignificant report. Their minutes will, little by little, decrease in the rundown of the news, and these will be more marginal, and will occupy less and less space in the media, always eager for new and more exciting news with which to entertain the insatiable Western public.

So the West will forget the Ukrainians, as it forgot the Iraqis and Afghans, and the Syrians and Libyans. About a few days after Aylan's photograph, he no longer remembered the refugees, who were later sold to Turkey in the largest transaction of people in history with almost no one remembering them. As Afghan women are history long ago, after being featured after the embarrassing fall of Afghanistan just a few months ago. Cover that were, precisely, to divert attention from the ridicule of the West. As today the West not only does not remember freedom of expression, but even closes the media, when not so long ago, millions took to the streets to say that the West was synonymous with freedom. Remember, that was after the attack on Charlie Hebdo...

So the West will forget the Ukrainians, as it forgot the Iraqis and Afghans, and the Syrians and Libyans. About a few days after Aylan's photograph, he no longer remembered the refugees, who were later sold to Turkey in the largest transaction of people in history with almost no one remembering them. As Afghan women are history long ago, after being featured after the embarrassing fall of Afghanistan just a few months ago. Cover that were, precisely, to divert attention from the ridicule of the West. As today the West not only does not remember freedom of expression, but even closes the media, when not so long ago, millions took to the streets to say that the West was synonymous with freedom. Remember, that was after the attack on Charlie Hebdo...

Then it will happen that the Ukrainians will continue to die, or not, as the Ukrainians of the Donbass died for eight years, or as the Palestinians, or the sub-Saharans or the Yemenis die today. Or so many others. But they will hardly matter anymore, either because there will be others dying elsewhere or because the Champions League will be approaching its final rounds. And, for this, although many do not even imagine it, there is not much left. You just need to remember. But for that you need memory.

And by then, if Russia has obtained a total or partial victory, it will not matter, because the West and Russia will have to relate to each other again, since the opposite would be a 'Berlin Wall' in the 21st century. And, even if it were, that wall would sooner or later fall. And by then, by the time the West wants to restore its relations with Russia, Ukraine, the much-hyped Ukraine, will just be a huge nuisance to the West. Or maybe a sticker to trade. Or maybe not even that. But little else. And its citizens, its citizens then will not even be cards in a perverse game of geopolitical poker. They will be history. It is the human being. It's the West, folks.

Appendix: The reality of the West and NATO

NATO countries have supplied 98% of the weapons that Saudi Arabia has bought to cause more than 377,000 victims in Yemen. Despite this, the media have managed to convince most of the need to strengthen NATO, a military organization, and increase military spending, in order to achieve peace. It is still very shocking that a 'No to war' implies increasing the military cat and strengthening a military organization, especially when Europe has 500,000 more soldiers than Russia and its military spending triples that of Russia (198,000 million euros for just over 60 billion). Europe needs independence and unity, and much more humanity, but hardly more soldiers or more military spending. Although, surely the arms companies that have earned more than 24,000 million euros on the stock market during the last week do not think the same.